By Mehmet Emin Hazret
Since the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party held in 2022, President Xi Jinping has investigated and punished 18 high-ranking generals. Among them are 6 full generals, 9 lieutenant generals, and 3 major generals. The number of lower-ranking officers detained has already surpassed the hundreds.
Most recently, on May 18, 2025, General He Hongjun (何宏军) reportedly committed suicide while under house arrest. This incident has revealed the growing unrest within China’s military ranks.
In his first decade in power, Xi Jinping initiated investigations into more than 170 senior generals—a figure higher than the total number of generals lost in war or during the Cultural Revolution since the Red Army’s founding in 1927.
One striking detail:
Xi is now arresting generals he personally promoted. Some have chosen suicide over facing public disgrace or punishment.
Military Coup in China: Real Threat or Exaggeration?
In recent months, several Chinese dissident sources have published analyses suggesting a military coup against Xi Jinping may be brewing in Beijing. But how realistic is this scenario?
Internal power struggle is a norm in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics.
Mao Zedong purged his chosen successors, Liu Shaoqi and Lin Biao.
Deng Xiaoping ousted three General Secretaries: Hua Guofeng, Hu Yaobang, and Zhao Ziyang.
Jiang Zemin removed the Yang brothers—Yang Shangkun and Yang Baibing—from the Central Military Commission.
Today, Xi Jinping has purged, prosecuted, or neutralized more than 750 senior officials since taking power. Internal CCP conflict is now squarely centered around Xi’s leadership.
The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, expected in the second half of the year, could be a turning point in this power struggle.
Coup or Reform? Could Power Change Hands in China?
Historically, regime change in China has occurred through military force or internal party maneuvering—not through democratic elections or open public contest.
While a coup remains a speculative possibility, I believe the likelihood is low.
Let’s assume the CCP rebrands itself or even steps down from power—what happens next?
The Soviet Experience: A Warning for the Future
The dissolution of the Soviet Union offers a valuable lesson.
On August 19, 1991, Boris Yeltsin stood atop a tank outside the parliament building in Moscow, defying a military coup.
150,000 people gathered in Moscow
250,000 more protested in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg)
Shouting: “No to the coup, democracy now!”
The Soviet military refused to fire on the people.
Yeltsin prevailed and immediately banned the Communist Party and seized its assets.
However, within a single night, millions of former officials suddenly rebranded themselves as “democrats.”
By 1999, Vladimir Putin became Prime Minister, and in 2000, he assumed the presidency.
Soon after, he rebuilt an authoritarian regime using the same entrenched communist-era elite.
Today, despite vast natural resources, Russia’s economy lags behind South Korea in global rankings.
Why? Because the roots of the old system were never fully dismantled.
China’s Future: Even If Change Comes…
Even if power in China someday changes hands, opposition forces remain weak and disorganized.
Much like in post-Soviet Russia, former communist officials will return—this time wearing democratic masks—and continue ruling.
That’s why:
The Chinese people,
The Uyghur community,
And the Western world
must recognize this reality—and develop long-term strategies accordingly.
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