Mehmet Emin Hazret
On June 18, 2025, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun announced that 791 Chinese nationals had been evacuated from Iran due to deteriorating security conditions, and that over 1,000 others were in the process of being relocated. This development raises fresh questions about China’s influence and military-strategic investments in Iran.
China’s Strong Presence in Iran: Oil, Arms, and Strategic Agreements
China has secured control over more than 45% of Iran’s oil fields and played a leading role in shaping Iran’s military infrastructure over the past 40 years. Yet recent events have cast doubt on the longevity of this alliance.
China’s Military Support to Iran – A Decade-by-Decade Overview
1. 1980s – Iran-Iraq War Era
Weapons: Anti-tank systems, armored vehicles, light arms
Value: Approx. $1–2 billion
Impact: Strengthened Iran’s resistance; laid the foundation for long-term military ties
2. 1990s – Missile and Radar Technologies
Weapons: Silkworm anti-ship missiles, short-range ballistic missiles
Value: $2–3 billion
Impact: Boosted Iran’s missile capabilities and regional deterrence power
3. 2000s – Modernization and Military Training
Weapons: Electronic warfare systems, air defense systems
Value: $1 billion
Impact: Enhanced Iran’s asymmetric warfare capacity with Chinese military advisors
4. 2010–2020 – Continued Support Despite Sanctions
Weapons: UAVs, ballistic missile components, cyber systems
Value: $1.5–2 billion;
Impact: Increased Iran’s regional operational capabilities
How Effective Were China’s Weapons?
During recent Israeli airstrikes involving 200 warplanes, strategic sites across Iran were bombed. China’s radar systems, missile shields, and early-warning technologies proved ineffective, exposing serious weaknesses in Chinese military tech both operationally and strategically.
The $400 Billion Strategic Partnership Under Question
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year Strategic Partnership Agreement (2021–2046) valued at $400 billion, encompassing investments in energy and military cooperation. But China’s sudden evacuation moves now raise doubts about the agreement’s future.
Precedents: Regimes China Previously Abandoned
Muammar Gaddafi – Libya (2011)
$18.8 billion in 50 major projects
30,000 Chinese workers evacuated in July 2011
China abandoned Gaddafi at the regime’s collapse
Bashar al-Assad – Syria (2011–2023)
Over $10 billion invested
Strategic partnership declared
Yet, when Assad’s regime faltered, China withdrew quietly
Is Iran Next?
To date, China has supplied Iran with:
Supersonic missile systems
Hypersonic technologies
Advanced UAVs
Command and control infrastructure
Electronic warfare systems
Still, these investments failed to protect Iran in the latest Israeli airstrikes. This fuels speculation that China may abandon Iran’s clerical regime just as it did with Gaddafi and Assad.
Conclusion: China Builds Partnerships, But Doesn’t Protect
China’s foreign policy is driven by economic interests, not ideological loyalty. It forms strategic alliances with authoritarian regimes, but withdraws support when those regimes near collapse. As seen in Libya and Syria, the same script may now be unfolding in Iran.
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