(Excerpt from the book: “Central Asia: The Heart of the Turkic World and the Stage of Geopolitical Rivalry – Power, Identity, and Future in the Turkic Republics”) 

Author: Mehmet Emin Hazret

1. The “Raw Material Depot” Strategy

China views Central Asia not as an equal partner, but as a strategic source of energy and minerals. It systematically obstructs the region’s industrialization.

China’s Resource Access Map:

• Kazakhstan: Oil, natural gas, uranium, copper
• Turkmenistan: Natural gas
• Uzbekistan: Gold, uranium, copper
• Kyrgyzstan: Gold
• Tajikistan: Water resources, gold

2. Mechanisms of Economic Control

1. Low Prices, High Dependence

 China buys raw materials at low prices while deliberately avoiding the establishment of local processing facilities.

 For example, crude oil from Kazakhstan is transported directly to China without refining.

• Trade Agreements That Suppress Local Production

 Long-term agreements with China are structured to inhibit the development of domestic industry in Central Asian countries.

• Chinese Products Flooding Local Markets

 Cheap Chinese goods have undermined local industries in countries like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, causing unemployment and deepened economic dependency.

• One-Dimensional Investment Focus

 Chinese investments concentrate heavily on energy, mining, and infrastructure, while ignoring sectors that foster production and technology development.

3. Energy and Mining Projects: Deepening Dependence Through Infrastructure

China’s energy security relies heavily on infrastructure projects like the Kazakhstan– China Oil Pipeline and the Central Asia–China Natural Gas Pipeline.

 New pipeline projects through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan aim to limit Western access to energy sources.

Uranium agreements in Kazakhstan and rare earth mining in Uzbekistan are strategically crucial for China’s tech and defense sectors.

4. Consequences for Central Asia: Rising Economic Dependence

Key Issues:

• Deindustrialization: China’s policies obstruct the growth of local industries.
• Monolithic economies: Economies based almost solely on raw material exports.
• Growing dependency: Infrastructure and logistics under China’s control.
• Public backlash: Anti-China sentiment grows alongside unemployment and inequality.

Conclusion:

 China is establishing multi-layered dominance in Central Asia using both economic and military tools.

 While modernizing old Soviet bases and expanding military presence, it also deepens economic dependency through energy and mining control.

The dreams of industrialization and independence in the Turkic republics are under pressure from China’s regional strategies.

 If Central Asian countries fail to break this cycle, they risk not only economic dependency but also the erosion of political sovereignty in the long term.

China’s Strategy to Deepen Economic Dependency Through Bribery and Debt Traps

1. Influence Through Corruption: Exploiting Weak Governance

China’s influence in Central Asia is not limited to trade and investment. It also relies heavily on bribery, corruption, and opaque agreements.

Weak and unaccountable governance in many of these states allows Chinese interests to expand unchecked.

Corruption Index & China’s Advantage:

 According to Transparency International’s 2024 report, Central Asian countries rank poorly in corruption perception:

• Turkmenistan: 167th out of 180
• Tajikistan: 150th
• Kyrgyzstan: 144th
• Uzbekistan: 126th
• Kazakhstan: 101st

This environment enables China to execute large-scale projects with minimal transparency and public accountability.

Mechanisms of Expansion Through Bribery

1. High-Level Corruption:

Chinese companies have been documented offering bribes to politicians and bureaucrats in exchange for multibillion-dollar infrastructure contracts.  Such incidents have been reported in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan through leaked documents and media investigations.

• Preferential Access for Chinese Firms:

Chinese companies are frequently awarded contracts without open tenders, often through opaque and exclusive agreements.

 This practice sidelines local firms and stifles competition.

• Media Control and Image Management:

China exerts influence over local media in Central Asia by providing financial support and partnerships.

 This leads to self-censorship and suppresses criticism of China, particularly in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

 Beijing’s narratives are widely promoted while dissenting voices are muted.

Debt Trap Diplomacy: Gaining Political Influence Through Financial Dependency

Another core pillar of China’s strategy in Central Asia is “debt trap diplomacy.”  Through massive loans, it fosters economic dependency and extracts political and strategic concessions from debtor nations.

Forms of the Debt Trap:

• Transfer of Strategic Assets:

 Tajikistan had to cede 1,158 km² of land to China in exchange for unpaid debts.

• Repayment Through Natural Resources:

 In Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, debts are often repaid in energy resources or raw materials.

• Privileges for Chinese Firms:

 In infrastructure projects, Chinese companies receive priority.

 In Kazakhstan, over 70% of major infrastructure projects have been awarded to Chinese firms.

• Political Silence:

 Highly indebted regimes often avoid criticizing China and align with its foreign policy.

 The Uyghur issue stands as the most striking example of this enforced silence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Consequences: Economic Dependency and Political Vulnerability

1. Decline of Economic Sovereignty

Overreliance on Chinese loans hinders independent policymaking.

 Local industries struggle to compete with China’s economic dominance, reducing these countries to raw material exporters.

2. Loss of Strategic Control

The handover of land, power plants, and mines in return for debt repayments erodes long-term sovereignty and national strategic autonomy.

3. Public Backlash and Anti-China Sentiment

Protests in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan highlight public frustration.

 Economic inequality and rising dependency fuel anti-China grassroots movements.

4. Political Compromise

Governments indebted to China feel compelled to conform to Beijing’s interests.  The absence of official criticism regarding China’s human rights violations against Uyghur Turks reflects this political dependency.

Behind the Mask of Economic Aid: A Structure of Dependence

China’s economic strategy in Central Asia goes beyond trade and investment.  It is shaped by corruption, debt leverage, and strategic coercion.

As a result:

• Economic independence is weakened
• Sovereign control is eroded
• Public discontent is rising
• Political decision-making is increasingly subject to foreign pressure

If this trajectory is not reversed, Central Asia’s dependency on China will evolve beyond economics — into the realm of political and strategic subjugation.

China’s Loans to Central Asian Countries (2024 Data)