Will World War III Start in East Asia? A New Front: Hokkaido!

“Will Russia Make a New Move Against Japan?”

by Mehmet Emin Hazret

Japan is conducting a joint military exercise in Hokkaido—very close to the Russian border—together with Germany and Spain.

But is this merely a drill? Or is Japan sending a much deeper message to Russia?

And the real question is:

While Russia is entangled in the war in Ukraine, could it dare to open a second front against Japan?

1 – What Is Japan Doing?

This exercise, scheduled for July, will take place near the four disputed islands in the north.

These islands have been a point of sovereignty dispute between Russia and Japan since World War II.

According to experts, Japan is sending three messages with this exercise:

It is demonstrating the capability to seize these islands by force, if necessary.

By acting jointly with NATO members (Germany and Spain), it emphasizes allied support.

While Russia is focused on Ukraine, it hints that pressure could also be applied from the East.

In terms of conventional forces, Russia is in a weak position against Japan in this region:

Japan’s naval power is far superior to Russia’s Pacific Fleet.

Russia’s logistics in the region are limited, and the Ukrainian front is already a major burden.

However, one should not forget:

Russia’s nuclear capability is its greatest deterrent against Japan.

Japan is the only country in history to have suffered a nuclear attack.

Although nuclear force may be Moscow’s “last resort,” for Tokyo, it remains a looming shadow.

Is this crisis solely between Russia and Japan? Of course not.

Behind the scenes, the force emboldening Japan is the United States.

The U.S. is both Japan’s security guarantor and the main actor trying to maintain regional balance against Russia and China.

This brings us to a key question:

Will China remain silent?

What if China takes the opportunity to attack Siberia?

East Asia is the heart of China’s economy. A potential war could shake the entire region.

For now, the players are making verbal moves.

But if diplomacy gives way to stubbornness, a new Eastern front may become inevitable.

And let’s not forget:

The real players are China, Russia, and the U.S.

Japan may be just a piece on a giant chessboard — or the hand that makes the first move.

So, what do you think?

Is this exercise a prelude to war, or just a political show of strength?

Let’s discuss in the comments.