As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, China quietly gains power and will use the excuse of these tensions to further tighten control in East Turkestan and perpetuate the Uyghur genocide.
Mehmet Emin Hazret
A potential war between India and Pakistan would not only destabilize South Asia but also carry grave repercussions for global geopolitics. In such a scenario, China is expected to offer Pakistan extensive and long-term military, logistical, and intelligence support. This support would not be an act of charity, but a calculated move tied closely to Beijing’s regional and global ambitions.
However, the consequences of such a conflict would likely spill over into China’s northwest frontier, particularly the Uyghur Autonomous Region—known among Turkic communities as East Turkestan. Geographically bordering both India and Pakistan, the region is directly exposed to the risks of escalating regional instability.
It seems an invisible hand has reignited long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan. The underlying motive? Likely to divert U.S. and allied naval forces away from the Pacific. If a full-scale war breaks out and escalates to a nuclear confrontation, the greatest beneficiary would undoubtedly be China.
While India would receive backing from the United States, Western allies, and potentially Russia, Pakistan remains deeply aligned with China—a relationship that dates back to the 1960s. Over the decades, China has treated Pakistan as a strategic backyard and, at times, a proxy for carrying out covert operations. For example, between 2012 and 2017, several international reports documented how Chinesemanufactured light weapons reached ISIS via Pakistan, in exchange for oil and other resources. Furthermore, China played a direct and indirect role in supporting Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, providing technological blueprints, enriched uranium, and strategic intelligence.
Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons poses a serious threat, particularly due to the risk of these weapons or related materials falling into the hands of non-state actors or radical groups. Additionally, Pakistan has played a complicit role in China’s ethnic and religious repression of Uyghur Muslims in East Turkestan. Pakistani intelligence agencies continue to monitor Uyghur diaspora communities in Europe and Muslim countries on behalf of China.
India, however, is not without blame in the Uyghur issue. In 2012, three brothers—Adil (16 years old), Abdulhalik (18 years old), and Abdusselam Tursun (20 years old)—fled the Chinese regime’s persecution in East Turkestan. They trekked on foot across the Karakoram section of the Himalayas to reach the Indian border town of Ladakh, where they surrendered to Indian troops. Although India has not signed the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, it has kept the three Uyghurs in prison for over 13 years and has repeatedly threatened to deport them back to China.
This contrasts sharply with India’s approach toward other refugee groups. According to the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs, as of January 1, 2021, over 72,000 Tibetan Buddhist refugees resided in Indian camps. While India has welcomed tens of thousands of Tibetans fleeing Chinese repression, it has denied refuge to just three Uyghur Muslims—exposing a harsh double standard and a level of Islamophobia that rivals Beijing’s own.
If war erupts between India and Pakistan, China could exploit the international distraction to intensify its crackdown on Uyghur communities in East Turkestan. Therefore, the Uyghur diaspora must remain vigilant, mobilize their networks, and amplify their voices globally to counter any potential escalation of state-led repression.
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